The Math Problem Facing the Lakers

The Lakers might be fighting an uphill battle…against math

Through 15 games, the Lakers rank 30th in field-goal attempts at 82.3 per game, a full 12 attempts fewer than the league-leading Blazers (94.2). That gap alone represents roughly 12–15 points of potential offensive volume every night.

They’re also 27th in three-point attempts at 32.3 per game. Only three teams attempt fewer threes.

Some of their low-attempt profile can be explained. They rank 2nd in free-throw attempts (29.1) and 3rd in free throws made (22.9), and teams that generate a lot of free throws naturally take fewer field goals.

But they also rank 27th in turnovers (15.7 per game), just 0.2 fewer than Dallas—the league’s worst. Between turnovers and trips to the line, the Lakers are burning roughly 20-23 possessions per game without producing a field-goal attempt.

The counterargument is that other good teams also shoot very few threes. And that’s true: the Nuggets (25th), Pistons (28th), and Rockets (30th) are all bottom-five in three-point volume. Yet they don’t suffer because their statistical profiles elsewhere are elite.

Rockets:
1st in 3-pt% (42.6%)
7th in points in the paint (53.7)
1st in offensive rating (123.4)
6th in defensive rating (111.9)
8th in field-goal attempts (91.3)
1st in offensive-rebound % (40.8%)
1st in second-chance points (19.4)

Houston overcomes low three-point volume with elite efficiency plus the league’s best extra-possession generation.

Nuggets:
2nd in offensive rating (122.2)
3rd in defensive rating (110.6)
4th in paint points (55.1)
13th in 3-pt% (36.6%)
3rd fewest turnovers (13.4)
16th in field-goal attempts (89.2)

They have Nikola Jokić, whose usage + efficiency stabilize their entire offensive ecosystem.
Denver’s shot profile is balanced enough, and their possession retention is elite.

Pistons:
2nd in defensive rating (109.6)
1st in points in the paint (59.3)
3rd in offensive-rebound % (35.0%)
10th in field-goal percentage (48.1%)
15th in turnovers (15.3)

Detroit doesn’t shoot many threes because they dominate the rim and win the possession battle.

Now compare that to the Lakers:
12th in offensive rating (116.5)
17th in defensive rating (114.1)
23th in 3-pt% (33.8%)
27th in turnovers (16.9)
19th in pace (101.10 possessions)
9th in points in the paint (53.1)

Nothing about their statistical profile compensates for the lack of threes or low field-goal volume. They’re slightly above average in offense and slightly below average on defense, while being bottom-tier in several high-leverage categories that determine win expectancy: three-point math, turnover margin, and pace.

Their 11–4 start likely reflects two stabilizers:
Solid interior scoring (9th in paint points), and
A middling but not harmful defense (15th in recent games).

But mathematically, their margin for error is thin.

They either need to increase three-point volume or play faster. You saw flashes of the latter with LeBron back in the starting lineup. Playing with Luka, Austin, Rui, and Deandre Ayton, he pushed the ball up the floor several times, creating early-offense opportunities—something Luka almost never does and Austin only occasionally.

Whether that shift can materially change the math remains the biggest question facing this roster.