NFL Week 12 Picks

(8-2) Colts @ (5-5) Chiefs

The Chiefs are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive, coming off a must-win last week against the Broncos in which they lost. So this begs the question, if you lost a must-win game the prior week, what does that make this game? Meaningless? A must, must-win? Could make the case for either. The Chiefs sit at 5-5 as of now, and can kiss any chance of winning the division goodbye sitting three games back of the Broncos. After the Texans win on thursday night against the Bills, that puts them ahead of KC for now–along with the Chargers, Bills and Jags who all sit in wild card spots. The Chiefs of course lost that crazy Monday night game to the Jags earlier this season, so they lose any tiebreaker with them. Same goes for the Bills who they also lost to a few weeks ago. They still get to play the Chargers one more time and have the Texans on the schedule too, leaving the door open to win a tiebreaker over those two. While their playoff hopes aren’t dead, they are dwindling, and a loss this week would almost certainly be the final nail in the coffin.

For the Colts, this is a big prove-it spot, coming off their bye week. They had a strong start to the year–Daniel Jones especially–but have somewhat faltered as of late. They struggled to beat the lowly Falcons last week in overtime, although it was an international game. But they also had an abysmal loss to the Steelers the week before in which they turned the ball over six times. Overall Daniel Jones threw three interceptions the first eight weeks of the season, then he threw three in Pittsburgh in week 9 and one to the Falcons two weeks ago. So he’s got four in his last two games after throwing three the previous eight–not good. Most people aren’t going to believe the Colts to be a true contender even if they have the best record in football, and people probably won’t think they’re good until they win a playoff game, but a win this week to put the Chiefs in a sleeper hold might go a long way in winning over public perception.

The matchups are interesting in this one. The Colts defensive strength is their rush defense, only surrendering 92.3 yds/game, good enough for fifth in the league. The Chiefs don’t and can’t run the ball anyway, so that may be a moot point. The Colts have gotten shredded through the air so far this season, giving up 235 yds/game. Now both the pass and rush stats could be explained by the Colts having been ahead in a lot of their games this season, so teams have been more apt to throw chasing a two score+ deficit, which would explain the Colts opponents having the highest percentage of plays being passes at 64.08% and lowest being run plays at 35.92%. That’s why they traded for Sauce a couple weeks ago though, and with Chevarius Ward coming back you’d think their secondary would improve greatly coming down the home stretch of the season. KC’s receivers have trouble creating separation, and Rashee Rice coming off a horrific knee injury last season and suspension to start this one is their #1 pass catcher. Travis Kelce has been coming on as of late, but still isn’t the guy he once was, and seemingly can’t be the catalyst of an offense like he once was. Mahomes is missing guys down the field all the time now, and their one-score luck of last year has done a complete 180.

Pick: The game being in KC helps, and should go a long way in helping them win this game and keep their season and playoff hopes alive. KC -3.5


(4-6) Vikings @ (6-3-1) Packers

According to Packers.com, “The Packers have listed running back Josh Jacobs (knee) among six players questionable for Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings. Others also questionable are receivers Matthew Golden (shoulder/wrist), Savion Williams (foot) and Dontayvion Wicks (calf), and defensive linemen Karl Brooks (ankle) and Lukas Van Ness (foot). Linebacker Quay Walker (neck) is doubtful while cornerback Nate Hobbs (knee) and receiver Jayden Reed (shoulder/foot) have been ruled out.” That’s a long list of injuries for the Packers, and after Josh Jacobs suffered a bone bruise last week, even if he does gut it out and play, I’d expect him to be operating at less than 100%. Vikings could get back their starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been out with a concussion since week 4, but has practiced in full all week and had his 21-day evaluation window activated last week.

A game that looked a lot better on paper before the season than it does now. The Packers might be the most underwhelming good team there is, spearheaded by Jordan Love and this offense as a whole just being meh. Their offensive stats are as follows: Points/Game-24.0 (#13), Yards/Game-344.0 (#12), Points/Play-0.396 (#14), Yards/Play-5.7 (#11). In other words, they’re average. A further dive into the Packers schedule this season might leave you wondering, have they beaten any good teams? Their season has been a rollercoaster. They beat the Lions in the first game of the season, then beat the Commanders, lost to the Browns, tied the Cowboys, beat the Bengals, beat the Cardinals, beat the Steelers, lost to the Panthers, then lost to the Eagles, and last week squeaked out a win against the Jameis Winston led Giants. That record against that schedule just leaves you wanting more from a team that people projected to be a real Super Bowl contender.

On the other side, the Vikings are free-falling after last years’ 15-2 season, culminating in a playoff beatdown, then a decision to move off of Sam Darnold and usher in the JJ McCarthy era. McCarthy has struggled big time this year, missing guys throw after throw, and struggling to stay healthy. You can see it when you watch Vikings games–Justin Jefferson seems to be frustrated, Kevin O’Connell looks frustrated, and JJ McCarthy’s self-proclaimed alter ego “NINE” has infiltrated meme culture and he is dangerously close to losing all hope of being taken seriously as a quarterback. They’ve got a lot to prove these last seven games of the season–JJ McCarthy in particular–if they want to go into the offseason with any silver linings. Right now they’re offense ranks are: Points/Game-21.8 (#22), Yards/Game- 296.4 (#27), Points/Play-0.380 (#16), Yards/Play-5.2 (#22), and worst of all they convert third downs at a rate of 3D 31.41%, next to worst in the league. None of those would resemble the stats of a team run by an “offensive guru,” and the heat is going to be turned up on the Vikings going into the offseason if this season does not finish up better and JJ McCarthy doesn’t show some serious signs of progression.

Pick: Packers -6.5

(6-4) Steelers @ (7-3) Bears

A matchup of two above .500 teams, both in playoff position as it stands today, with the return of Aaron Rodgers to one of his favorite places to play over the years–Soldier Field. The question is whether or not Rodgers will actually be able to play though after suffering a broken bone in his left wrist last week. Mike Tomlin declared him questionable. Alex Highsmith is doubtful for the Steelers and Darius Slay is questionable. For the Bears, their defense will be thin as linebackers Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell were all declared out.

So with the Bears missing their three starting linebackers, a bad defense gets even worse theoretically. They rank in the bottom five of a lot of defensive stats; Opp Points/Game-26.4 (#26), Opp Yards/Game-364.6 (#27), Opp Points/Play-0.450 (#30), Opp Yards/Play-6.2 (#30). The Bears can’t stop the run and they can’t stop the pass, lucky for them the Steelers offense isn’t a juggernaut by any means. They run for 3.9 yds/carry–29th in the league–they run for 88.2 yds/game–also 29th in the league. They’re passing stats aren’t much better. They only throw for 6.9yds/completion and 1987.7 yds/game–both bottom half in the league. The Steelers aren’t even favored to win their division anymore, even after holding a three game lead over the Ravens after week 6. Ravens are -240 and the Steelers +270 to win the AFC North, which tells you all you need to know about the Steelers chances the rest of the season. The Steelers play the Bills next week, then the Ravens, the surging Dolphins, then the Lions, the Browns, and finish with the Ravens. On the other hand, a dive into the Bears schedule would reveal they haven’t beaten anybody good this season–with wins over the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, Saints, Bengals, Giants and Vikings. Some of those games won by the skin of their teeth. None of the teams the Bears have beaten have a winning record, but I don’t think the Steelers are very good either. And a hurt Aaron Rodgers–who already doesn’t want to get hit anymore–is worth picking against in this spot in Chicago.

Pick: Bears -2.5